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SECOND SUBSCRIPTION DRIVE – 2015 – HELP!

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SEPTEMBER 16,  2015

THE DEBATE – AT 11:35 P.M. ET:  No "Short Takes" tonight because of the debate.  It was more than a three-hour affair, the "Gone With the Wind" of presidential debates.

As I've said many times at Urgent Agenda, the only thing that's important in these debates is who wins.  No policies will change.   Almost all the comments will be forgotten within days.  The Republican Party must thin the herd, and I think that process started tonight.  We're not selecting a president, please remember, we're selecting a candidate for president.  To become president you've got to win.  There's no silver medal, and no one gets "honorable mention."  If you lose there won't be much mention at all.  So selecting the best candidate is absolutely critical.   

I've monitored a number of reactions on the tube and internet, and it is clear that Carly Fiorina had a terrific debate, followed by Marco Rubio.  Trump did reasonably well, but did not dazzle.  Carson seemed to come off a neutral.  The others elicited varying degrees of positive comments, but there was no particular yearning for any one of them.  I did not hear anyone referred to as a real loser.

The question now is who will be helped in the polls.  Will the numbers really change?  I believe that Fiorina will continue to climb upward, as she did after the first debate, when she was relegated to the "junior" table, the debaters who appeared earlier in the evening because of low standing in the polls.  She's a fighter.  She's noticed.  She has that "I want to get behind her" appeal. 

By contrast, people have been surprised that Rubio, who had a good first debate, didn't go anywhere in the polls.  It could be that he just kind of disappeared after the debate.  I doubt it that will happen this time.  He's got to break out of the double-digit pack.

I've felt for some time that Donald Trump will reach a ceiling and go no further.  His so-so performance tonight may mark that moment.  I'm guessing that Ben Carson, who apparently does terrific retail campaigning between debates, will hold his own.

(Pausing now to do more checking on the internet.)

The polls we're starting to see are online polls, which are not scientifically based.  I generally don't report them, as anyone can participate.  Commentary starting to appear confirms the impressions in the paragraphs above.  We'll have to wait a day or more for the full, carefully conducted polls.

September 16, 2015       Permalink 

WONDERFULLY STATED – AT 9:27 A.M. ET:  As we wait for the second GOP presidential debate tonight, Michael Barone gives us an insightful view of how things have changed under Barack Obama.  From the Washington Examiner:

In this presidential cycle voters in both parties, to the surprise of the punditocracy, are rejecting experienced political leaders. They're willfully suspending disbelief in challengers who would have been considered laughable in earlier years.

Polls show more Republicans favoring three candidates who have never held elective office than 14 candidates who have served a total of 150 years as governors or in Congress. Most Democrats are declining to favor a candidate who spent eight years each in the White House and the Senate and four as secretary of state.

Psephologists of varying stripes attribute this discontent to varying causes. Conservatives blame insufficiently aggressive Republican congressional leaders. Liberals blame Hillary Clinton's closeness to plutocrats and her home-brew email system.

But in our system a widespread rejection of experienced leaders ultimately comes from dismay at the leader in the White House. In 1960 Richard Nixon, after eight years as vice-president and six in Congress, campaigned on the slogan, "Experience counts." No one is running on that theme this year.

Nixon could, because over the preceding quarter-century most Americans mostly approved the performance of incumbent presidents. Presidents Roosevelt, Truman and Eisenhower still look pretty good more than 50 years later.

Barack Obama doesn't. His deputy national security adviser Ben Rhodes recently said that the president's nuclear weapons deal with Iran was as important an achievement of his second term as Obamacare was of the first. Historians may well agree.

These two policy achievements have many things in common.

Both were unpopular when proposed and are now.

Barone ends his piece this way:

And so a president who came to office with relatively little experience has managed to tarnish experience, incumbency and institutions. A fundamental transformation indeed.

COMMENT:  Please read the entire piece.  It's one of the best summaries of the damage Obama has done that I've seen.  I hope the American people understand enough to make a major change next year.  I think they do.

September 16, 2015       Permalink

OH, THIS IS JUICY – THE KENNEDYS VERSUS THE CLINTONS – AT 8:21 A.M. ET:   There has been friction between the two camps ever since the Kennedys went all in to support Barack Obama for the Democratic presidential nomination in 2008.  Blood continues to boil.  From the New York Post: 

Talk in Kennedy circles is that Caroline Kennedy is furious over the revelation that a longtime confidant of Hillary Clinton’s secretly sabotaged her bid to become a US senator — and Kennedy may seek her revenge by backing veep Joe Biden if he runs for president.

In June, leaked e-mails revealed that Hillary henchman Sidney Blumenthal had orchestrated news stories undermining Caroline while she was vying to be appointed to Hillary’s Senate seat in 2008.

Buzzfeed reported that Blumenthal had an arrangement with Tina Brown in which he could commission stories to be written for Brown’s Daily Beast, including two pieces critical of Kennedy, one referring to her as a “puppet” and the other describing her candidacy as an “insult.” Now, orbmagazine.com’s Richard Turley reports Kennedy is being urged by family to resign as US ambassador to Japan and endorse a Biden presidential bid.

Pointing out that Caroline has also had to endure attacks from Donald Trump, the magazine quotes a source: “Rather than stay in Tokyo and let the politicians continue to use her as a punching bag, it would be a profile in courage for her to come home and help elect the person she believes is best qualified to lead the nation.”

Another Kennedy source tells Page Six, “Caroline may not be ready to give up a plum ambassadorship, but she will likely endorse Joe Biden if he runs. But the Kennedys always play it smart, and other members of the family will surely donate to and support Hillary.”

COMMENT:  If I were Caroline, I'd stay in Tokyo.  The Kennedy dynasty is past tense.  She really would have no great influence here, and recall that she went nowhere in her quest to be senator from New York, succeeding Hillary.  At least in her current position she has some respectability, a contrast with some of the other Kennedys.

September 16, 2015       Permalink

QUOTE OF THE DAY – AT 8:11 A.M. ET:  Walter Russell Mead is one of the truly fine commentators of our time.  He's written a column noting the revelation that Russia offered to dump Assad, but that the offer was ignored by Obama because Obama thought Assad would fall on his own.  From the American Interest: 

If true, this was a staggering missed opportunity. The President’s string of misjudgments on the Middle East—on the peace process, Erdogan, withdrawal from Iraq, Libya, ISIS as the “J.V. team”, and Syria—is one of the most striking examples of serial failure in the annals of American foreign policy.

Generally speaking, what the President seems worst at is estimating the direction in which events are flowing. He thought Erdogan was taking Turkey in one direction; Erdogan was going somewhere else. He thought there was a transition to democracy in Egypt; there never was a prospect of that. He has repeatedly been caught flatfooted by events in Syria. And Putin keeps running rings around him.Understanding the intentions and estimating the capabilities of people who don’t share his worldview are not our President’s strong suits.

COMMENT:  And Field Marshal Obama has now judged that Iranian mullahs are sweet guys with funny hats who will abide by their nuclear agreement.  I'll sleep better knowing that.

September 16, 2015       Permalink

THE DISGRACE – AT 8:05 A.M. ET:  Senate Democrats, using procedure gimmickry, once again blocked a vote on the Iran nuclear deal, depriving Americans of knowing how their senators would actually vote on one of the most important foreign-policy issues of our time. 

The Dems blocked the vote because they would surely lose it.  And, with the House having voted against the deal last week, that would mean sending the rejection to the president's desk.  Obama would veto it, but that would be humiliating to him, putting into place a major foreign-policy initiative with both houses of Congress against it.  From The Hill:

Senate Democrats on Tuesday blocked a resolution disapproving the Iran nuclear deal for a second time, standing firm behind the signature foreign policy initiative of President Obama’s second term.

The Senate voted 56-42 for the Iran resolution, short of the 60 votes needed to move forward.

Sens. Rand Paul (R-Ky.) and Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.), both candidates for president, didn't vote. Meanwhile, in a repeat of last week, Democratic Sens. Ben Cardin (Md.), Joe Manchin (W.Va.), Robert Menendez (N.J.) and Charles Schumer (N.Y.) bucked Obama to oppose the Iran agreement.

Republicans have until Thursday to pass legislation rejecting the nuclear deal, and while they have pledged to keep the focus on Iran up through the deadline, their next steps are unclear.
Sen. John Cornyn (R-Texas), the Senate's No. 2 Republican, said that additional votes on Iran this week are "still being discussed."

"Whether there are other votes that we'll take, that hasn't been decided yet to my knowledge," he told reporters.

COMMENT:  What a dark moment in American democracy.

September 16,  2015     Permalink

SEPTEMBER 15,  2015

SHORT TAKES ON THE DRIFTING WRECKAGE – AT 7:45 P.M. ET:

OH, OUR DEAR MUSLIM BROTHERS – From the Washington Times:  As Saudi Arabia faces mounting criticism for refusing to take in any of the millions of Syrians fleeing conflict in their homeland, it was revealed this weekend that the country has over 100,000 empty, air-conditioned tents that could house up to 3 million refugees.  The tents, located roughly 2,150 miles from Syria in the city of Mina, are only used a few days a year to house pilgrims on their way to Mecca for the hajj, the news station TeleSUR reported.  The huge tents are also fireproof and equipped with kitchen and bathroom facilities.  Such devotion to the brethren.  But don't despair.  The vast Saudi lobby in Washington, which spends tens of millions a year to tidy things up, will take care of the image questions.  And the moronic leftists in Europe will take care of the rest, absorbing millions of refugees, the better to destroy the hated Western civilization. 

WHAMMO! – From Fox:   On "Justice," Judge Jeanine Pirro tore into Hillary Clinton's "ever-changing," "schizophrenic" narrative surrounding her private email server.  Judge Jeanine pointed out that on Monday, Hillary said she has no intention of apologizing, only to say "I'm sorry" on Tuesday.  "And Thursday, you said again you were sorry for all the confusion that ensued. All the confusion that ensued? Who's confused? Are you saying we're confused? That we don't get it? Don't you dare throw that one on us! We're not confused," Judge Jeanine said. "The law is clear. And stop muddying the waters with your ever-changing narrative."  "And now, Hillary, you are under federal investigation for a myriad of potential crimes. Not the least of which - disclosure of classified information - could send you to prison for ten years. Hillary, a primer: You’ve got to keep your stories straight."  Well, someone finally said it.  Thank you, Judge Jeanine.

THE PEOPLE'S MAYOR – Yeah, right.  Socialist Mayor Bill de Blasio of New York certainly knows how to live the socialist life.  From the Washington Free Beacon:   Three trips to Europe for New York City Mayor Bill de Blasio have cost city taxpayers over $40,000, according to public records obtained by the Washington Free Beacon.  De Blasio’s most recent excursion to Rome for a two-day meeting on climate change in July cost $17,731.42 for him and two aides, who stayed at a luxury hotel next to the Vatican, drank prosecco, and ate tiramisu on the taxpayer’s dime.  De Blasio did not meet Pope Francis, who hosted the event, though he said it was “fun even to be close to him.”  The Democratic mayor’s overnight flight on July 20 from JFK to Fiumicino cost $2,607.80, and his return less than two days later ran to $1,901.30.  De Blasio stayed at the Palazzo Cardinal Cesi, a palace hotel that dates back to the 1400s. Monica Klein, Michael Carey, and Penny Abeywardena, three city officials, also stayed with the mayor at the hotel.  Why is it that these leftists, whenever they get power, start living the very kind of life they've cursed? 

HE'S OKAY – From London's Telegraph:   Luxury carmaker BMW's new chief executive Harald Krueger fainted on stage at the Frankfurt auto show on Tuesday.  Mr Krueger, 49, collapsed as he was commenting on BMW's latest models during a news conference. Two men escorted him off stage.  A BMW spokesman said over the public address system: "I'm a bit lost for words."  It was the first appearance at a major auto show by Mr Krueger, who took the helm as CEO in May.  BMW later said: "Harald Krueger experienced a moment of dizziness. As a result, the press conference was cancelled in order that Mr Krueger could be examined by a doctor. Mr Krueger's health is stable and he is recovering well."  We don't know why he became the ultimate fainting machine.  Maybe he took a look at his own sticker prices.  He's apparently okay now.

September 15, 2015       Permalink

ANOTHER FAMOUS OBAMA VICTORY – AT 10:08 A.M. ET:  Before the Iran nuclear deal is even implemented, we are having more trouble from a nation with which we made a remarkably similar deal some years ago, only to see that nation scrap the deal at its convenience.  From London's Daily Mail: 

North Korean dictator Kim Jong-un has threatened the United States with nuclear armageddon after Pyongyang resumed production of atomic bomb fuel in its top secret laboratory.

The director of North Korea's Atomic Energy Institute said the country was ready to counter any US hostility with 'nuclear weapons any time'.

He said scientists had 'made innovations day by day' to 'guarantee the reliability of the nuclear deterrent... as required by the prevailing situation'.

He said: 'In the meantime, the US anachronistic hostile policy toward the DPRK that forced it to have access to the nuclear weapons has remained utterly unchanged and instead it has become all the more undisguised and vicious with the adoption of means openly seeking the downfall of the latter's social system.'

The chilling declaration comes comes a day after Pyongyang said it is ready to launch satellites aboard long-range rockets to mark a key national anniversary next month.

COMMENT:  Of course, they don't mean it.  Just words.  Just words.  And do you really believe those little Asian men with thick glasses can attack Pearl Harbor?  Don't make me laugh.

September 15, 2015       Permalink

OH YES, I REMEMBER IT WELL – AT 9:46 A.M. ET:   Hillary is in trouble, and now a new, ill-timed ad, presumably to attract women, is starting to backfire, as it brings back the wrong kind of memories.  From The American Mirror: 

Hillary Clinton believes victims of sexual assault have “a right to be believed.” Except, of course, if the accusations are made against her husband and could complicate her political aspirations.

In Clinton’s new web ad, titled “Hillary’s Message to Survivors of Sexual Assault,” the candidate claims:

I want to send a message to every survivor of sexual assault.

Don’t let anyone silence your voice. You have a right to be heard. You have a right to be believed. We’re with you.

But that’s a very different message Kathleen Willey received in 1993 when she accused Hillary’s husband, President Bill Clinton, of sexually assaulting her.

“She believed what happened for sure,” Willey tells The American Mirror. “She just chose to ignore the plight of all of his victims, thus enabling him to continue to abuse and rape women in the future.”

Willey adds, "She’s a money-hungry hypocritical witch who will do anything for money.

"She’s a lying pig. I CANNOT believe that she had the gall to make that commercial. How dare she? I hope she rots in hell."

COMMENT:  I don't think that was an endorsement.   Voters will be reminded of the Clinton history, a history of scandal and sordid behavior.  They will be asked, "Want to go back to those days?"

And Hillary is also flat wrong.  No one has an automatic right to be believed, no matter what the charge, no matter who he or she is.  In an ethical legal system, a charge must be proved in a court of law.  Daniel Patrick Moynihan, Hillary's much wiser predecessor in the U.S. Senate, said it best – you're entitled to your own set of opinions, but not your own set of facts.

It seems that every time Hillary opens her mouth these days, she gets into more trouble.

September 15, 2015       Permalink

TRUMP SLIPS AMONG EVANGELICALS – AT 8:54 A.M. ET:  This links well with the post just below.   From the Washington Times: 

Donald Trump is leading among evangelical Republican voters nationally, but those on the ground in Iowa, where religious conservatives play an outsize role in picking GOP presidential nominees, say they can’t see it lasting.

The rise of Ben Carson among evangelical voters underscores their tenuous support for the billionaire businessman, and lingering questions about Mr. Trump’s own faith, plus the usual rhythms of the political cycle, will likely reel him in, analysts said.

“As the season changes we get a bit more serious — it’s when people realize this caucus is coming up, and we’re going to have to go to the local precinct, stand up in front of a group and say who we support and why,” said Craig Robinson, editor in chief of the Iowa Republican. “As the race nears, social conservative voters will find their way back to their more natural harbors in terms of candidate selection.”

That appears to already be happening, with Mr. Carson narrowing the gap with Mr. Trump in Iowa. A Quinnipiac University Poll released on Friday found Mr. Carson easily winning over born-again evangelical voters, with support from 27 percent of those surveyed, compared with 20 percent for Mr. Trump. The poll echoes earlier results found by the most recent Bloomberg/Des Moines Register Poll, in which Mr. Carson beats Mr. Trump with Christian conservatives by a 7-point margin, with several poll respondents describing Mr. Carson as “a kind Christian whom they can trust.”

COMMENT:  As people start to focus on politics, after the summer and Labor Day, numbers will shift.  At least the Republican Party has a deep bench.  Look at the Democratic Party.  Don't you feel sorry for them?  Have you no compassion?  They are drowning 20 feet out.  I suggest we throw them a 15-foot rope and say we've met them more than halfway. 

September 15, 2015       Permalink

ASTOUNDING!  CARSON ROMPS – AT 8:31 A.M. ET:  A new New York Times/CBS poll is showing what we have begun to sense, that the real story in the Republican race may not be Donald Trump, but Ben Carson.  Things are heating up, and they are exciting.  From The New York Times: 

The day before the second Republican debate, campaigns are honing their strategies, Twitter is looking at donations, and polls are rearranging the numbers and the leader board. As big names fall, and Donald J. Trump sees only a modest gain, Ben Carson no longer has to look ahead to see the front-runner: He can just look to his side.

Mr. Carson has amassed considerable new support from Republican primary and caucus voters and is now running nearly even with Mr. Trump as their pick for the party’s presidential nomination, according to a new New York Times/CBS News poll.

Far more than other Republican contenders, Mr. Carson, a retired neurosurgeon, has capitalized on his outsider message — a mix of anti-establishment views, delivered in a calmer tone than Mr. Trump’s, and socially conservative positions — to draw voters away from rivals and leap ahead in the poll, which will be published on Tuesday. The proportion of Republican voters favoring Mr. Carson rose to 23 percent from 6 percent in the previous CBS News poll, which was taken just before the first televised Republican debate in early August. Over that same period, Mr. Trump made modest gains, to 27 percent from 24 percent.

Mr. Carson pulled at least some of his support from Republicans who are more typical political figures. Jeb Bush fell in the poll, to 6 percent, from 13 percent, and Gov. Scott Walker of Wisconsin tumbled to 2 percent from 10 percent. No other candidates fell as much as those two, according to the poll. Mr. Carson drew more support from college graduates than Mr. Trump, while those without a college education were more likely to favor Mr. Trump.

Over all, 37 percent of Republican voters say their minds are made up about which candidate they will support as their party’s presidential nominee, while 63 percent say it is still too early to say. Slightly more than half of Mr. Trump’s backers say they have decided, while 46 percent said they could still switch candidates. Those who said they had made up their minds are twice as likely to support Mr. Trump over Mr. Carson. Women were less likely than men to support Mr. Trump and more likely than men to support Senator Marco Rubio of Florida.

The only other significant gain was made by the third outsider in the Republican field, Carly Fiorina, the former chief executive of Hewlett-Packard, who drew support from 4 percent of voters, compared with a trace amount in midsummer.

COMMENT:  That is one poll, and we have to be cautious.  But I'm sensing from what I'm seeing that it gives an accurate view of a very fluid situation.

The next debate is tomorrow night.  Eyes will be on Carson and Fiorina.  Carson, in his quiet way, is making progress.  Fiorina, with her brilliant debating style, may well take on Trump.  Must see television.

September 15,  2015     Permalink